March 27, 2025

Chairman Arrington Statement on CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its annual long-term budget outlook detailing the nation’s dismal fiscal health. The report shows the debt growing to historic levels and the slowest extended period of economic growth in U.S. history.

Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) released the following statement:

“The CBO report confirms what we already know: America’s fiscal health is rapidly deteriorating, and our long-term outlook goes from bad to unimaginably worse with a projection of federal debt reaching $150 trillion by 2055, which is more than $1.6 million of debt per family of four. I have continued to sound the alarm on our out-of-control deficit spending and unsustainable debt—the single greatest threat to our country and our children’s future. We must rein in Washington’s wasteful spending, restore economic freedom, and unleash prosperity in America once again. 

The House-passed budget blueprint will help us achieve just that. Our plan mandates at least $1.5 trillion in savings over the next decade, with a goal of saving even more. It's now up to the Senate to move with urgency to unlock the reconciliation process and deliver President Trump's full agenda. If we succeed, we can preserve America’s leadership in the world and secure the blessings of liberty for our children.”

KEY STATS FROM THE CBO LONG-TERM BUDGET OUTLOOK

Debt and Deficits:

  • Based on CBO projections, gross federal debt will reach $150 trillion by 2055, equivalent to more than $1 million per American household—four times the current debt burden of $274,000 per household. Adjusted for inflation, debt per household is projected to be nearly $600,000, which is three times current median household net worth ($192,900). 

  • The report shows the gross federal debt rising from 123 percent of GDP in 2025 to 169 percent of GDP in 2055, by far the highest level in American history. 

  • Gross federal debt has averaged 69 percent of GDP over the past fifty years.

  • CBO projects the federal deficit to exceed 5 percent of GDP every year between 2020 and 2055. In American history, there have never been more than five successive years of deficits this high (World War II, 1942-46). 

Spending:

  • Federal spending is projected to increase from its 50-year average of 21.1 percent of GDP to 26.6 percent of GDP by 2055.

  • Mandatory spending grows from 73 percent of the federal budget today, to 78 percent in 2035, to 81 percent in 2055. 

Net Interest Spending: 

  • Interest spending on the national debt is projected to grow from 3.2 percent of GDP in 2025 to 5.4 percent by 2055.

  • Interest payments on the national debt are poised to exceed annual defense spending this year and all discretionary spending by 2052.  

  • Interest spending will double as percentage of federal revenue, increasing from 18 percent of revenues this year to 28 percent of all tax revenues by 2055.    

Revenues:

  • Over the next three decades, CBO projects revenue to average 18.6 percent of GDP, higher than the 50-year average (17.3 percent). 

Economic Growth: 

  • Over the next 30 years, CBO projects economic growth will average only 1.6 percent a year. In American history, economic growth has never been this low for such an extended period. U.S. economic growth has averaged 3.1 percent since World War II. The report notes that the rising debt burden contributes to lower growth projections.

Demographics: 

  • CBO projects the slowest population growth in American history through 2055, just 2 percent per decade—less than a third the growth of the previous low (the 1930s).

  • By 2033, deaths will exceed births in the United States.